Click here for the full PDF: The Quarterly Q3 2024

With this commentary, we plan to communicate with you every month about our thoughts on the markets, some snapshots of metrics, a section on behavioral investing and finally an update on MacNicol & Associates Asset Management (MAAM). We hope you enjoy this information, and it allows you to better understand what we see going on in the marketplace.

 

“After Barack Obama won the 2008 presidential election, I was heartened to see him issue an Open Government Initiative on his first full day in office.”

— Jesse “The Body” Ventura, former Governor of the State of Minesota and professional wrestler “

Heartened by understanding…

Like it or not in a just a few short weeks, Americans will decide whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will become their next President. Whether you believe that American Presidents exert any actual control or are at the mercy of their relationship with Congress isn’t the point. Presidential campaigns along with the promises contained within them garner a lot of attention. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have radically different ideas around things like the tax code, trade policies and immigration. We hope to provide you with context and our own perspective in how these differences might impact you. The winner of that contest will ultimately be decided by the American people. But the winner of the only contest that matters to you [the contest of savings versus inflation] will be decided by us. The objective of this piece then is to provide you with some insight into what the main issues are and how they may impact portfolio strategy. Since numerous past examples of pre-election investment analysis exist, we point out that so too do numerous investing disasters that turned out to be just plain wrong after inauguration. We are therefore acutely aware that no one should invest exclusively on the basis of a specific election outcome. Highly sought after and deeply respected investment strategists have placed bets on industries and sectors of the market that were “no brainers” leading into November the 5th only to be left looking foolish and poor when the exact opposite happened not soon thereafter. Very importantly, at no point will we state who we think will win the executive or legislative branches of the US government, but we think she will have a tough time contending with even more opponents in congress.