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Quarterly and Monthly Commentary

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Quarterly and Monthly Commentary2023-11-16T02:36:46-05:00

Alternative Quarterly Commentary – Q1 2024

During the first quarter of 2024, the Trust was higher by 4.1% net of costs, and this brings the Trust’s annualized rate of return since inception [October 2010] to 9.5%underpins a situation where government spending is leading to unsustainable levels of debt and deficit.

By |April 30th, 2024|

Alternative Quarterly Commentary – Q4 2023

During the fourth quarter of 2023, the MacNicol Investment Team continued to observe a widening gap between the inflation expectations of market participants and both voting and non-voting central bank officials. Catalyzing our concerns that financial markets may have “jumped to conclusions” when it comes to interest rates and a labor market that stands 200 basis points below its long-term (ex-COVID) average and fiscal profligacy that underpins a situation where government spending is leading to unsustainable levels of debt and deficit.

By |January 30th, 2024|

The Monthly – December 2023

Told you… The late Charlie Munger once said, “The best thing a human being can do is help another human being know more”, and we completely agree. Could one human who may benefit from knowing more be Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem? Macklem’s Bank of Canada (BOC) recently convened to offer Canadian consumers and businesses its view on the economy, inflation, and financial markets, and to administer their latest decision on interest rates. The decision on interest rates was self-explanatory: no change. But knowing why the BOC suddenly threw the idea of further rate hikes under the bus requires some digging1. In any event, for the time being this country’s trend setting interest rate will remain at 5%. In his remarks, Macklem acknowledged that global economy momentum continues to cool, and this has caused inflation to ease further. Reductions in long-term inflation expectations caused a mini rally in the bond market, with long yields retracting from peak levels in early October. Canadian economic growth stalled, and consumption growth was near zero. Business investment was flat over the past year although government spending and new home construction boosted an otherwise lukewarm fiscal spending picture.

By |December 12th, 2023|
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