Monthly Commentaries

U.S. deficit, economic data, Job openings, Crypto, Bitcoin, SEC and Bitcoin, Behavioral investing.

Told you…The late Charlie Munger once said, “The best thing a human being can do is help another human being know more”, and we completely agree. Could one human who may benefit from knowing more be Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem? Macklem’s Bank of Canada (BOC) recently convened to offer Canadian consumers and businesses its view on the economy, inflation, and financial markets, and to administer their latest decision on interest rates. The decision on interest rates was self-explanatory: no change. But knowing why the BOC suddenly threw the idea of further rate hikes under the bus requires some digging1. In any event, for the time being this country’s trend setting interest rate will remain at 5%. In his remarks, Macklem acknowledged that global economy momentum continues to cool, and this has caused inflation to ease further. Reductions in long-term inflation expectations caused a mini rally in the bond market, with long yields retracting from peak levels in early October. Canadian economic growth stalled, and consumption growth was near zero. Business investment was flat over the past year although government spending and new home construction boosted an otherwise lukewarm fiscal spending picture.

As those of you born between October 23rd and November 21st already know, Scorpio is the superior and greatest of all the astrological signs, and there are very good reasons why. Scorpions are intelligent, good-looking, well liked and above all very modest and humble

Septembers have traditionally received failing grades when it comes to their performance in the stock market. June and October are slackers too, but their failings somehow tend to be issued a passing grade by most investors.

2022 saw most balanced investors schooled in the main constituents of a balanced portfolio (stocks and bonds). Even educated investors had to quickly remind themselves that fixed income securities can lose value and that stocks aren’t the only asset class that can fluctuate every now and again.

“If it takes 200 years to achieve artificial intelligence, and then finally there is a textbook that explains how it’s done, the hardest part of that textbook to write will be the part that explains why people didn’t think of it 200 years ago…”Over the past twenty years I have developed a reputation for making prudent investment decisions for clients at inopportune times.

Sell in May and you will pay…Over the past twenty years I have developed a reputation for making prudent investment decisions for clients at inopportune times. While certainly not something to broadcast in my line of work, I suppose it is far better than making horrendous investment decisions at any time. As most of you are not professional investors, questions as to an investment’s underlying quality are usually deferred to us and we appreciate your trust. But as to the question of whether to invest in the first place or not, well, that one is more nuanced because it introduces an element of timing. In this seemingly crazier and crazier world, it never seems like a good time to invest.

Today’s central investing problems are something we have spoken about for years. And, we have prepared for this inevitability for just as long. Inflation and the higher and higher interest rates need to tame it are no longer just academic theory, they are modern investing reality.

With this commentary, we plan to communicate with you every month about our thoughts on the markets, some snapshots of metrics, a section on behavioural investing and finally an update on MacNicol & Associates Asset Management (MAAM). We hope you enjoy this information, and it allows you to better understand what we see going on in the marketplace.

MacNicol’s Monthly Commentary - December 2022 With this commentary, we plan to communicate with you every month about our thoughts on the markets, some snapshots of metrics, a section on behavioural investing and finally an update on MacNicol & Associates Asset Management (MAAM). We hope you enjoy this information, and it allows you to better [...]